NFP to Steal the Spotlight as ECB Decision Looms – Week Ahead of Jobs Data, Policy, and Global Signals

The week ahead stands as a crossroads for major economies as investors parse a blend of wage data, policy decisions, and trade headlines. With the US labor market under scrutiny amid ongoing government downsizing under the fictional DOGE program, traders will weigh whether February’s payrolls can defy expectations or follow January’s softer tone. At the same time, European policymakers face a data-driven path on inflation and easing, while Canada and Australia eye their own crucial releases. Tariff rhetoric continues to loom large, complicating the outlook for the dollar, euro, and global growth. This series of developments will shape expectations for future rate cuts, currency moves, and the trajectory of inflation across major economies.

NFP in the Spotlight Amid DOGE Layoffs

The spotlight this week centers on the United States’ Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report as February’s release approaches, with expectations tempered by the evolving dynamics of labor market composition. The market narrative has shifted toward a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve itself, a phenomenon not seen since the Fed’s decision at the December FOMC meeting. Investors have grown more confident that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance on rate hikes or keep policy at a steady stance for a period, even as other macro data present a nuanced picture of the economy.

One of the more unusual but influential headlines this cycle is the ongoing downsizing within the federal workforce under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). As DOGE continues to prune federal positions, there is a real possibility that February’s NFP print will show softer overall payroll growth due to government job reductions. This development does not necessarily signal a weakening of the economy. If the private sector demonstrates resilience and absorbs workers leaving public payrolls, the net effect could be a stable or even improving unemployment picture, even as government payrolls decline. The market will pay close attention to the composition of payrolls in February: are gains driven primarily by private-sector hiring, or is public-sector employment dragging the headline?

Looking back at January, payrolls rose less than expected, but the decline was attributed in part to temporary, idiosyncratic factors. California wildfires and severe cold weather disrupted hiring in certain sectors, which created a temporary pause in payroll gains. Yet, multiple sub-indicators pointed to underlying strength: unemployment fell, the December print was revised higher, and wage growth exceeded expectations in some measures. Taken together, these signals imply that the labor market remained robust despite near-term volatility in specific hiring channels.

For February, investors are considering a few critical implications. If the private sector shows renewed strength and government payrolls remain soft due to DOGE-related reductions, the net impact on the dollar could be nuanced. A stronger private sector payrolls report could support a dollar rally, as it indicates ongoing resilience in economic activity and a capacity for private employment to offset government cutbacks. Conversely, if government job losses amplify or private-sector hiring slows, the dollar could weaken further as expectations for near-term monetary policy easing shift to the fore.

Beyond the headline payrolls figure, the market will examine the undercurrents of wage growth, labor force participation, and the broad composition of job gains across sectors. A scenario in which private employment reaccelerates even as government payrolls contract could be interpreted as a positive sign for the economy’s fundamentals and for the dollar, assuming inflation remains in check. If wage growth accelerates too quickly or if broader inflation signals remain elevated, it could complicate the Fed’s path and weigh on risk assets.

Additionally, traders will be watching the ISM PMIs and other labor-market indicators early in the week to triangulate the Wage and Employment narrative. The downward pressure on employment growth from government layoffs would need to be counterbalanced by resilience in manufacturing, services, and private-sector hiring in order to sustain a positive sentiment for the dollar. The interplay between these data points will likely shape bets on the number of rate cuts anticipated for 2025, especially if the domestic data continue to indicate a soft but stable labor market, rather than a sharp deterioration.

In this setting, the market may forecast fewer rate cuts for 2025 if the labor market proves sturdier than anticipated, particularly if ISM readings corroborate a reacceleration in activity despite softer payrolls. If, on the other hand, labor-market weakness broadens beyond government jobs and appears more widespread, traders could reprice toward a more aggressive easing stance. The careful balance between government and private-sector dynamics will be crucial to how market participants interpret February’s payroll data and update their expectations for monetary policy in the near term.

As the February NFP data approach, market strategists emphasize a data-dependent framework for policy outlooks. The Fed’s communications have signaled patience, but the inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience will drive the timing and magnitude of any subsequent policy shifts. In this context, February’s payroll report will be a focal point for assessing whether the economy continues to exhibit resilience in the face of headwinds, or whether it slides into a more pronounced cooling that would accelerate the timeline for rate cuts. The narrative remains that a strong private sector could offset government job declines, supporting the dollar, while broader weakness could lift expectations for additional easing.

US Dollar and Tariff Risks: Fed, CPI, and Market Expectations

The U.S. dollar’s trajectory this week is characterized by a nuanced mix of caution and selective strength, driven by evolving expectations around monetary policy and trade policy. In the first half of the week, the dollar traded on the weaker side versus several major peers as investors teased out a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve anticipated. This part of the week’s price action reflects a broader market sentiment that the Fed may delay further tightening or maintain a pause in the near term, allowing rate differentials to narrow relative to some of its peers.

At the same time, renewed tariff rhetoric emanating from U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a major upside risk to inflation, complicating the outlook for both short-term and longer-term price dynamics. The possibility that tariffs could be imposed on additional trading partners—such as China, Canada, and Mexico—adds a layer of protectionist risk to an economy that has already contended with price pressures from a tight labor market and supply-chain adjustments. The potential for higher import costs could keep price pressures stubborn, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Market participants have also weighed the relative strength or weakness of the labor market against this tariff backdrop. Following the weaker-than-expected January payrolls data, investors reassessed the likely pace of monetary tightening for 2025. Previously, markets had been pricing in around 60 basis points of rate cuts for the year, a continuation of the easing cycle that began in late 2024. This is a more aggressive stance than the 50 basis points projected in the December dot plot, reflecting a more accommodative policy expectation given the shift in risk sentiment and data readings.

However, the tariff narrative introduces a significant upside risk to inflation. If tariffs become a central element of trade policy, import costs could rise and feed into overall inflation, complicating the Fed’s efforts to normalize policy. In this context, the Fed’s stance—whether to pause longer or proceed with a measured pace of cuts—will hinge on ongoing data flows, including CPI data and labor-market statistics. The balance of risks is delicate: on one hand, softer data could justify a more pronounced easing path; on the other, tariff-driven inflation could constrain aggressive policy moves.

Amid this backdrop, investors are also looking to upcoming data releases that could shape the outlook for rate cuts and the dollar. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, due on Monday and Wednesday respectively, will be read for signals about the health of the economy’s two largest legs. A benign reading or a modest print in line with or above expectations could support hopes for continued stabilization and fewer rate cuts. Conversely, evidence of slowing activity, particularly if it accompanies soft payrolls, could reinforce expectations of a broader easing cycle and a weaker dollar in the near term.

In sum, the dollar’s near-term path will be a function of how policymakers interpret the inflation data, the strength or fragility of the labor market, and how tariff developments unfold. The combination of a potentially softer payrolls print and tariff-related inflation risks could push the dollar in mixed directions, depending on which data series dominate the narrative in any given week. The market’s expectation for the Fed’s policy path will continue to be data-driven, with February’s CPI and job-market indicators shaping the calculus for rate cuts, the dollar’s value, and the risk appetite of investors.

ISM PMIs, Labor Market, and Rate Path Scenarios

The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs remain central to the interpretation of the U.S. economy’s health and the trajectory of monetary policy. After a week of softer preliminary S&P Global PMIs for February, investors are turning their attention to the ISM figures as a gauge of momentum in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The juxtaposition of those readings with public sentiment and labor-market statistics will be critical in framing expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in the near term.

The labor market’s dual composition—private-sector hiring versus government payroll changes—will be a particularly important lens for the ISM data. If the ISM prints show a reacceleration in employment components and business activity, it could signal that the private sector remains resilient enough to absorb shifts in government employment and that the broader economy could weather tariff threats with less disruption. In such a scenario, markets might price in fewer rate cuts for 2025, anticipating continued growth and a slower pace of easing.

On the other hand, if the ISM readings indicate sustained weakness and a broader deceleration across both manufacturing and services, investors could reposition toward a more aggressive easing path. The concern is that a soft ISM environment would align with a softer labor market and weaker inflationary pressures, reinforcing a dovish pivot and supporting a weaker dollar in the near term. The dynamics are nuanced, as the ISM data are not the sole determinant; inflation readings, wage growth, and the trajectory of consumer demand will also play vital roles.

Moreover, the market’s expectations for the 2025 rate-cut cycle will be influenced by how the ISM data align with other contemporaneous indicators. If ISM prints corroborate the weakness indicated by S&P Global PMIs, traders may shift toward anticipating deeper or more prolonged easing. Conversely, a dissonant signal—where ISM shows resilience while private data point toward softer results—could lead to a more mixed stance, with policymakers weighing the persistence of demand against inflation pressures.

In the broader context, the ISM data will interact with the tariff narrative and ongoing global developments. Tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures, potentially dampening the willingness to commit to rapid rate reductions. Yet, if the data demonstrate slipstream demand and a cooling in wage pressures, the Fed could calibrate its stance toward a measured pace of withdrawal from stimulus measures. The balance between inflation control and economic growth remains the central tension for policy expectations, and the ISM PMIs will be a key reference point in shaping investor sentiment and risk appetite across asset classes.

Subsection: Reading the Jobs Data and Energy of Markets

A deeper look at payrolls, unemployment trends, and wage growth will shed more light on how the labor market is evolving in a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties. The details in the payrolls report—such as the distribution of gains across sectors, hours worked, and the evolution of average hourly earnings—can help explain whether the economy is likely to sustain momentum even as some government jobs are cut. The participation rate and underemployment developments will also matter for gauge of slack in the labor market and for assessing the persistence of inflation pressures.

Investors will also dissect the relationship between job creation and inflation expectations. A payrolls print showing strong private-sector gains with subdued wage growth would be particularly favorable for a scenario of gradual easing with limited risk to inflation. Conversely, a payrolls print showing weak overall growth with persistent wage pressures would complicate the scenario for rate cuts and elevate the risk of a more aggressive stance to keep inflation under control.

In this framework, the PMIs and payrolls will work together to paint a coherent picture of where the economy stands and where it might be headed. The market’s reaction will hinge on the degree to which these signals align or diverge and on how tariff rhetoric interacts with the domestic data to shape expectations for policy.

ECB’s Data Dependency and Eurozone Inflation Path

Across the Atlantic, the euro area faces its own test of data dependence as it navigates inflation, growth, and policy signals. The upcoming release of preliminary euro-area CPI inflation on Monday, followed by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision on Thursday, places the eurozone at a pivotal moment. The ECB’s last meeting concluded with a 25 basis point rate cut while offering mixed guidance on the future pace of easing, effectively signaling a data-dependent approach.

Market expectations have shifted toward pricing in around 88 basis points of additional reductions by year-end, suggesting investors anticipate further easing as inflation trends downward and growth stabilizes. This expectation persists even if the ECB were to deliver another 25 basis point cut in the near term, given the likelihood that the easing cycle could unfold in a meeting-by-meeting fashion rather than through a predetermined path.

However, the euro’s upside potential amid ECB easing is tempered by several offsetting factors. Tariff-related uncertainty remains a key risk—most notably the possibility of new duties on European goods, as indicated by tariff threats from U.S. policymakers. This dynamic could hamper euro strength, even as inflation cools and the ECB maintains a flexible, data-driven stance. Additionally, political developments in Europe—such as the formation of a governing coalition in Germany and broader European security considerations—can influence risk sentiment and currency valuations. The special EU summit on March 6, focusing on Ukraine and security guarantees, is one event that could shape market expectations for the euro in the near term.

From a technical perspective, a lower-for-longer interest rate environment in the euro area tends to support euro depreciation against some currencies, particularly if the U.S. policy path remains unclear or if tariff tensions intensify. Yet, a robust inflation trajectory that surprises to the upside or a clearer path toward monetary accommodation by the ECB could yield a more pronounced euro rally, as investors shift toward a more favorable rate differential for the region.

In short, the ECB’s decisions will be studied not only for the rate move itself but also for the accompanying language. A clear acknowledgement that the eurozone economy is on a downshift but still anchored by a gradual path of policy accommodation could bolster the euro, especially against the dollar, if investors interpret the stance as infrastructure for sustainable growth. On the other hand, a cautious or ambiguous stance could keep uncertainty elevated, potentially keeping the euro within a tight range as markets await clearer signals about inflation dynamics and growth prospects.

Tariff headlines will also color the euro’s trajectory. If tariff threats translate into higher import costs and global price pressures, the euro might struggle to regain momentum even as the ECB eases. Conversely, if tariff risk eases and growth improves in the eurozone, the euro could find more durable support in a data-driven easing cycle. The interplay between inflation data, policy guidance, and geopolitical risk will be a central theme for the euro in the days ahead.

Canada’s Jobs Report and BoC Outlook

Canada’s labor market is another focal point for the week, with the national jobs report scheduled to accompany U.S. data releases. Following a January jobs report that surpassed expectations and a sticky core CPI, traders are positioning for a cautious stance from the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its upcoming gathering on March 12. The market is assigning roughly a 50% probability to the BoC holding rates for the meeting, reflecting a balance between a robust domestic labor market and ongoing inflation concerns.

The loonie has shown sensitivity to both domestic data and external shocks, including tariff rhetoric from the United States and broader global risk sentiment. While a stronger jobs print could reinforce expectations for the BoC to stay on hold, allowing the currency to maintain its gains, renewed threats of tariffs and a potential rise in global inflation could limit the extent of any rally. The interplay between domestic employment numbers and global policy signals will influence the BoC’s stance on rates and, by extension, the direction of the Canadian dollar.

If Canada’s employment numbers demonstrate sustained strength, the BoC might be more inclined to maintain a neutral stance and monitor incoming data before making further policy moves. In contrast, a softer jobs print or an uptick in core inflation could push the BoC toward a cautious hold or even a rate cut, depending on the broader inflation trajectory and the degree of domestic demand. The risk environment, including U.S.-Canadian tariff talks and global trade tensions, will be a crucial backdrop shaping the BoC’s decision-making process.

Investors will also be watching for signs of wage growth and participation trends in Canada, which can illuminate the health of the labor market and potential inflation risks. A robust labor market that continues to tighten could keep the BoC on a vigilant path, balancing the need to support growth with the goal of containing inflation pressures. The Canadian dollar, in this context, could experience volatility as market participants adjust to the evolving policy landscape and domestic demand signals.

Australia: RBA Minutes, GDP Data, and Global Trade Impact

Across the Pacific, Australian traders await a critical set of releases tied to the country’s monetary policy and domestic growth. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision, released during the Asian session on Tuesday, will be a focal point for traders seeking clarity on the central bank’s approach to future rate decisions. The minutes will be considered alongside January’s preliminary retail sales data, which can provide insight into domestic demand and consumer confidence.

On Wednesday, Australia will release its Q4 GDP data, a pivotal indicator of the country’s growth momentum. The RBA’s move earlier in February—an anticipated 25 basis point rate cut—was accompanied by cautious language about future easing. The market has priced in a high probability—around 80%—of a pause at the upcoming April 1 meeting, with expectations that the central bank will proceed with only a couple of additional quarter-point reductions through the end of the year. The minutes and GDP data will help calibrate these expectations, potentially providing fresh context on inflation dynamics, the labor market, and the external environment.

China’s data landscape also factors into Australia’s outlook, given China’s role as Australia’s largest trading partner. The week features China’s trade data release on Friday, which will inform assessments of demand for Australian exports and the broader global growth backdrop. If China’s trade data reveal acceleration or resilience, Australia’s export outlook could improve, supporting growth and preventing a sharp pullback in the AUD. Conversely, softer Chinese data could weigh on the AUD as traders reassess external demand conditions.

The RBA’s policy path remains sensitive to inflation dynamics in Australia, including the domestic inflation rate and wage pressures. With inflation around the 2.5% y/y level in January, markets have priced in a cautious approach toward future cuts, balancing the need to support growth against the imperative to keep inflation in check. The minutes are expected to reveal whether officials are ready to revert to a more neutral stance or if they remain comfortable with a tighter policy approach, given the evolving inflation trajectory and growth outlook.

Amid these developments, the Australian dollar’s movements will continue to be shaped by the global risk environment, commodity prices, and the trade relationship with China. Tariff developments and geopolitical tensions could temper the AUD’s upside unless domestic indicators strongly justify a more resilient stance. The balance of domestic data, policy signals, and external shocks will determine whether the AUD finds stronger footing in the near term or remains constrained by external headwinds.

China Trade Data and Global Growth Outlook

A key element in the global growth narrative is China’s trade data, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The data will be a barometer of external demand, particularly for commodity markets and manufacturing hubs around the world. In the context of tariff tensions and evolving U.S.-China relations, China’s trade performance will significantly influence global growth expectations and risk sentiment.

If the February trade data show robust exports and resilient import demand, there could be positive implications for regional growth and trade dynamics. A better-than-expected trade reading would reinforce the notion that China remains a critical engine of global demand, supporting supply chains and commodity markets. This outcome could also help stabilize risk assets and provide relief to central banks weighing the pace of policy normalization.

Conversely, if China’s trade data disappoint, signaling soft demand from one of the world’s largest economies, the global growth outlook could face headwinds. Traders would reassess the trajectory for industrial activity, global supply chains, and investment cycles, potentially leading to broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Given the interconnections among global economies, such a development would have a cascading impact on commodity prices, energy markets, and currency movements, with particular implications for the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and other commodity currencies.

China’s domestic policy response—its stance on stimulus measures, credit growth, and structural reforms—will also play a role in shaping the outlook. If authorities respond with targeted easing or supportive measures, the external demand environment could stabilize, providing a more constructive backdrop for global growth. If policy remains restrained, or if external headwinds intensify, the consequences could ripple through international markets, influencing everything from equities to fixed income and exchange rates.

In this evolving landscape, investors will scrutinize both immediate data releases and the broader policy and geopolitical backdrop. The interaction of China’s trade data with tariff tensions, U.S. policy signals, and Europe’s inflation trajectory will determine the degree to which global growth remains on a steady path or faces incremental pressures. Traders should be prepared for a range of outcomes, from resilient demand that supports a synchronized global rebound to a more cautious scenario in which deceleration in one or more major economies weighs on the global growth outlook.

Market Scenarios: Government vs Private Sector Job Trends and Policy Implications

The balance of payroll growth between government and private sectors presents a nuanced signal for policymakers and markets alike. If the private sector demonstrates renewed vigor while government payrolls contract, the overall labor market could remain robust, potentially supporting the case for a moderate and measured pace of policy normalization. Such a scenario would also bolster the dollar’s relative strength, as investors price in a continued demand-driven economy with controlled inflation.

Alternatively, if government job reductions become more pronounced and are not offset by private-sector gains, the labour market could display greater fragility. In this case, wage growth and inflation dynamics would be critical to determining whether the Fed remains on a path of gradual easing or pivots to a more accommodative stance to sustain aggregate demand. The possibility that the labor market weakens in a diffuse manner—where job losses are concentrated outside the government sector but are widely distributed—would heighten concerns about a broader economic slowdown and could increase market volatility as participants reassess policy expectations.

Tariff developments add another layer of complexity to these scenarios. The threat of new duties on European goods, as well as ongoing tensions with partner economies, could create inflationary pressures that complicate the path of monetary policy. If tariff-related cost pressures persist, central banks may be reluctant to move decisively toward rate cuts, even in the face of softer domestic data. Conversely, if tariff rhetoric eases and trade relations stabilize, macroeconomic data could carry more weight in shaping a more straightforward easing cycle.

Investors will also be looking at the pace and breadth of central-bank communication. The notion of a “data-dependent” policy stance implies that central banks will react to incoming information in real time, adjusting expectations in response to both domestic and international data. This approach underscores the importance of a holistic view of the data landscape, including CPI, employment metrics, PMIs, and broader growth indicators, to form a coherent market outlook.

In sum, the market’s path will hinge on the evolving balance between domestic labor-market dynamics, tariff developments, and central-bank communications. Investors should consider multiple scenarios, including a soft but resilient private sector, a broader inflationary impulse from tariffs, and a data-dependent approach from policymakers. The resulting price action across equities, currencies, and fixed income will reflect the ongoing negotiation between growth, inflation, and policy.

Global Growth Outlook and Policy Crosswinds

The global growth picture remains sensitive to a mix of domestic data, policy moves, and geopolitical developments. The United States continues to face a nuanced scenario where a dovish tilt in financial markets coexists with tariff risks that could reaccelerate inflation. The Eurozone faces a similar dynamic: easing expectations against a backdrop of inflation signals and political risk. Canada and Australia align on a path shaped by domestic data, global demand, and the external environment, with China’s trade data acting as a determining factor for regional and global growth prospects.

The policy crosswinds among major central banks are evident in the way markets price rate paths and risk sentiment. The Fed’s path will be guided by the inflation trajectory, labor-market resilience, and tariff dynamics. The ECB’s stance will be anchored in inflation and growth readings, while remaining sensitive to trade tensions and external demand. The BoC and RBA will balance domestic conditions with global conditions, particularly in the context of China’s activity and commodity markets. Across all regions, tariff-related risks inject a degree of uncertainty that will likely keep volatility elevated as data arrive and as policymakers craft forward guidance.

Investors should maintain a flexible allocation approach, weighting opportunities across currencies, fixed income, and equities according to evolving data. Data surprises, policy guidance, and geopolitical headlines will continue to drive short-term price action. A disciplined risk-management approach, with an emphasis on diversified exposure and a clear understanding of central-bank horizons, will be essential in navigating the coming weeks.

China’s Trade Data and Global Growth Implications

The release of China’s trade data on Friday holds the potential to influence the global growth narrative in meaningful ways. traders will scrutinize the balance of exports and imports, looking for signs of resilience in demand and supply-chain dynamics. A robust export performance could signal that external demand remains a tailwind for Chinese growth, while a softer result could amplify concerns about a cooling economy and confirm the need for policy support.

The implications extend beyond China’s borders. A stronger Chinese trade outlook would have implications for commodity prices, energy demand, and regional trade flows, benefiting economies that are closely tied to Chinese demand. It would also influence global risk appetite and the perceived stability of supply chains, potentially supporting higher equity valuations and easing concerns about a broader global slowdown.

Conversely, a weaker trade reading could exert downward pressure on global commodity markets and dampen sentiment across risk assets. It would raise questions about the durability of global growth and could intensify calls for policy stimulus from major economies. The data would be pivotal in shaping the expectations for a synchronized global rebound or a more uneven recovery across regions, affecting currency markets, stock indices, and bond yields.

China’s domestic policy response to trade conditions—whether through targeted stimulus, credit expansion, or reforms to growth drivers—will be another critical element. A measured but constructive policy stance could moderate any negative spillovers, while a more aggressive easing could buoy growth but raise concerns about financial stability. The interplay between China’s growth trajectory, global demand, and tariff dynamics will continue to shape the macro landscape for months to come.

Conclusion

As this week unfolds, investors will contend with a confluence of labor-market signals, policy decisions, and geopolitical headlines that collectively determine the near-term direction of major asset classes. The potential for February’s NFP data to show resilience or softness—particularly in the context of DOGE-related government layoffs—will be a central narrative for U.S. payrolls and the dollar’s trajectory. The possibility of tariff-related inflation pressures adds another layer of complexity, challenging policymakers to balance growth, employment, and price stability.

In Europe, the ECB’s approach will be closely tied to headline inflation and underlying growth metrics, while policy makers weigh the potential for further easing against external risk factors, including tariff tensions and political developments. Canada and Australia face parallel questions about the pace and scope of policy normalization, as domestic data, external demand, and global risk sentiment interact to shape the outlook for their currencies and economies.

China’s upcoming trade data will be a crucial piece of the global growth puzzle, informing expectations for regional demand, commodity markets, and policy responses. Taken together, the data flow and policy signals across the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and China will converge to determine whether the global economy sustains a measured expansion or faces renewed headwinds from tariff dynamics and inflation risk.

The path ahead remains data-driven. Investors should stay vigilant for shifts in payrolls, services and manufacturing activity, inflation readings, and political developments that could alter rate expectations and currency trajectories. A disciplined, diversified approach—anchored in a thorough assessment of macro indicators and policy communications—will be essential to navigate the evolving landscape as the global economy adjusts to a post-pandemic normal and seeks steady growth in an environment of ongoing geopolitical and trade considerations.