Baltic Exchange Shipping Updates: Weekly Tanker and Dry Bulk Market Round-Up for April 11, 2025

A week of renewed macro headwinds left freight markets largely discordant, with Capesize and other bulk sectors wrestling against softer demand while signs of resilience emerged on select routes. The Baltic Exchange’s comprehensive weekly update shows a nuanced mix of declines and modest recoveries across vessel classes, driven by a combination of tariff tensions, shifting commodity flows, and ongoing global uncertainty. Across the Capesize sphere, trading activity faced pressure from broader economic frictions, even as miners remained active midweek in the Pacific. In the Atlantic, cargo flow remained steady but the pressure from softer regional markets weighed on front-end rates. As the week closed, some indices edged back from midweek lows on improving bids, while others remained fragile, underscoring the uneven nature of current market dynamics. The following sections provide a detailed, section-by-section examination of each vessel type, highlighting rate movements, fixtures, and the underlying factors shaping the week’s outcomes.

Capesize

The Capesize market entered the week under a pall of macroeconomic headwinds, with escalating tariff tensions between the United States and China casting a broad shadow over sentiment. This backdrop contributed to midweek pressure on key rate indices before a partial rebound toward the end of the period. The Baltic Exchange’s benchmark BCI 5TC fell sharply midweek and then clawed back some losses, finishing the week at US$14,952, down from US$16,728 at the opening bell. This pattern reflects a broader narrative: a congested Pacific tonnage list coupled with midweek miner activity that proved insufficient to stem a downward drift in rates for major routes. The Pacific market, characterized by longer lists of available ships, continued to witness softness in front-haul and cross-Pacific fixtures as buyers remained selective and freight rates adjusted to the supply-demand mix.

In the C5 pipeline, the Pacific’s absence of decisive momentum culminated in a rate decline from US$7.95 to around US$7.20 midweek, with a modest recovery by week’s end to US$7.70. Across the Atlantic, the South Brazil and West Africa to China lanes were not immune to early-week pressure, contributing to a softer C3 index that slid from US$20.67 to US$18.71 midweek. Activity and bidding gradually improved toward week-end, driving the C3 back up to US$19.185. A similar pattern of demand and fixtures persisted in the North Atlantic, where cargo flows remained steady but the week featured several softer Trans-Atlantic and fronthaul fixtures earlier on. These movements underscore the sensitivity of Capesize earnings to macro risk sentiment and regional demand shifts, even as miner activity provided pockets of support on certain days.

Looking deeper at the supply side, clean January-to-April supply dynamics remained robust enough to offset some demand softness, yet the overall tone remained cautious. The Capesize segment continued to experience a tug-of-war between longer-term supply commitments and shorter-term speculative demand, with impacts felt most acutely on the short- to medium-term fixtures in both hemispheres. The week’s data suggest traders and charterers are prioritizing routes anchored to structural iron ore and coal flows, while new shipments and spot requirements continue to be priced conservatively given the uncertain macro backdrop. On balance, Capesize rates reflected a cautious but serviceable market, with enough activity to avoid a full-scale rout but insufficient momentum to reverse the midweek pullbacks decisively. The week closed with a nuanced picture: a modest uptick in certain transoceanic corridors, tempered by ongoing risk aversion and the persistent influence of tariff-related sentiment on demand for long-haul cargoes.

From a market-structure perspective, traders emphasized the continued value of ballast management and voyage optimization. The improved but uneven bid levels toward the end of the week suggest that risk sentiment may be slowly stabilizing, albeit at muted levels. Several carriers were seen negotiating ballast and option strategies to protect against further volatility, while some owners kept tonnage appetites conservative amid uncertainty. The Capesize market thus remains sensitive to both macro policies and commodity fundamentals, with regional variations illustrating the ongoing complexity of global freight pricing in a fragile environment. Looking ahead, market participants will likely monitor iron ore and coal shipments closely, along with any policy developments that could influence ferrous ore pricing, demand signals from key steel-producing regions, and shifts in global trade flows that could re-balance tonnage supply in the weeks ahead.

Panamax

The Panamax market this week displayed a pronounced influence from global macroeconomic developments, with disruptions and uncertainty shaping demand patterns across regions. In the Atlantic, the trans-Atlantic lanes bore the brunt of pressure as demand softened and sentiment remained cautious. Voyage fixtures on these routes trended toward sub-index timecharter equivalents, reflecting a tighter immediate demand environment and more conservative hiring practices among charterers. Even as some routes struggled, the fronthaul grains trade from North-Central South America offered a glimmer of positive momentum, though those levels retreated as the week progressed. The net effect was a week with limited upside and persistent headwinds for Panamax earnings, as buyers remained selective and owners priced fixtures to reflect broader risk.

The South American leg of Panamax activity captured attention, with second-half April arrival deals hovering near the US$15,250 plus US$525,000 ballast/bulk (bb) mark. This pricing band indicated a market that was available but not aggressively priced, suggesting that sellers were seeking to secure constructive terms while buyers remained wary. In Asia, the market faced a notable absence of NoPac inquiries, a gap that weighed on sentiment and limited the pool of immediate charter opportunities. A potential mitigating factor arose from a mid-week uptick in demand from Australia, which provided some support for rates on trips to China, where rates hovered around US$11,500 for 82,000-dwt types able to deliver to China, Korea, or Japan. The prospect of a tighter NoPac inquiry market and the Australian demand offset by limited new business suggested that activity would need to rebound on a broader front to lift Panamax rates meaningfully.

Period activity remained subdued, as would be expected in an environment characterized by global uncertainty and a soft Future Forward Average (FFA) market. The interplay between spot trading, forward hedges, and asset liquidity continued to shape strategic decisions in the Panamax space. Many market participants indicated that the lack of buy-side conviction and hedging pressure would need to abate before a more robust period could emerge. In sum, Panamax performance this week reflected a cautious market characterized by soft Atlantic demand, limited NoPac inquiries, and selective improvements in Australian-origin shipments. The absence of sustained, broad-based momentum meant that owners faced a period of cost-structure discipline as they navigated the prevailing uncertainties. Looking ahead, Panamax players will be watching for policy cues, global demand shifts, and any signs of renewed appetite for longer-haul trades that could lift the fronthaul and trans-Atlantic segments.

Ultramax / Supramax

The Ultramax and Supramax segment faced continued volatility driven by domestic and international policy signals, including the tariff environment that has dominated sentiment in recent weeks. With unsettled conditions persisting, the Atlantic market remained notably fragile, as most routes experienced softening levels. In the US Gulf, there were circulating rumors of fronthaul business trading in the low- to mid-teens for approximately 60,000- to 63,000-dwt ships, a representation of the cautious risk appetite among operators in the presence of volatility and liquidity concerns. The South Atlantic remained a more positional market, with evidence of a 63,000-dwt unit reportedly fixed from EC South America to Denmark at around US$19,000, illustrating the kind of value-driven engagement that can emerge even during periods of general weakness.

In West Africa, fixed activity was observed, with ships in the mid US$13,000s fixed for shipments to China, underscoring the lingering demand for feeder routes to Asia. Indonesia-based demand presented a mixed bag, while further north, a lack of sustained momentum kept rates in check. A notable outlier was the Southeast Asia-to-EC India path, with a 64,000-dwt vessel reportedly fixed from Indonesia to EC India at around US$16,000, signaling that certain regional demand pockets can briefly outperform broader market trends. The Northeast Asian corridor experiences were mixed as NoPac-related inquiries did not scale up to provide broad-based uplift, while Australia-based demand offered some incremental support for rates on specific run-to-China routes.

On the supply side, a degree of caution persisted in period markets as uncertainty around the tariff landscape dampened forward interest. Some owners reported that period activity had nearly come to a halt, reflecting the broader climate of instability and risk aversion among prospective charterers. Within the Asia-Pacific region, demand was described as a "mixed bag," with Indonesian activity contributing to rate pressures and moderating expectations in neighboring markets. The overall tone remained one of cautious engagement rather than aggressive expansion, with owners seeking to anchor earnings within a range that could absorb volatility while preserving cash flow. In summary, Ultramax/Supramax week outcomes highlighted a bifurcated market: localized pockets of activity against a backdrop of subdued overall demand, with rate levels reflecting the prevailing risk environment and the continued influence of tariff-related sentiment on forward-looking outlooks.

Handysize

Handysize performance this week mirrored the challenges facing other small- and mid-sized vessel classes, with continued downward pressure across both Atlantic and Pacific theaters. The Continent and Mediterranean markets were notably subdued, characterized by limited activity and softening rates as tonnage lists built and the supply-demand balance shifted toward owners with flexible positions. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf regions exhibited weak sentiment, reinforcing the theme of softening markets as available tonnage grew and demand stayed tentative.

Two concrete fixture examples illustrate the ongoing pressure: a 36,000-dwt vessel was reported fixed for delivery Recalada for a West Africa redelivery voyage at US$16,000, while a 39,000-dwt vessel fixed for a U.S. Gulf delivery with redelivery in West Mediterranean at US$12,500. These fixtures underscore the broader downward drift across the sector and highlight the challenges of sustaining firmer rates in the current climate. In Asia, the tonnage count continued to rise through the week, contributing to downward pressure on rates and hinting at further softening ahead. A notable fixture involved a 38,000-dwt vessel fixed for a Susaki-delivery trip via Korea to redelivery in Indonesia with steel at US$11,500, illustrating the sensitivity of Handysize rates to regional demand fluctuations and commodity-transport dynamics.

Beyond vessel-level movements, the Handysize market remains influenced by the overall risk environment and the shift in forward-looking demand. Period activity, while present in some pockets, did not provide a meaningful counterweight to spot-market softness, as global uncertainty and a tepid Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) market continued to dampen the appetite for longer commitments. The combination of regional softness, increased tonnage, and the broader macro backdrop contributed to a week where Handysize rates drifted lower, with the market signaling that additional downside risk could adjourn expectations for near-term rate stabilization. As a result, owners and operators in the Handysize segment are likely to focus on optimizing ballast and diversify routes to identify pockets of demand, even as the overall market posture remains cautious.

Clean trade and MR segment influence

The Clean tanker landscape, including LR2 and LR1 trades, showed a gradual softening as the week unfolded, aligned with broader market caution. LR2 freight rates softened on MEG/Japan trades, with the TC1 75,000-ton MEG/Japan index dipping from WS250 to WS130.28. The corresponding TC20 90,000 MEG/UK-Continent screening also declined, finishing about US$271,000 lower at US$3.73 million. West of Suez, Mediterranean/LR2 activity remained comparatively subdued, with the TC15 index holding near the US$3 million level throughout the period. In the LR1 space, MEG freight also trended downward, though the reductions were less pronounced than the LR2 segment, consistent with the longer-dated characteristics of LR1 employment.

On the UK-Continent, LR1s held their ground, with the TC16 60,000 MEG/West Africa index hovering near WS130 and Baltic TCE around the mid-20,000s per day for round trips. The MR segment, in contrast, displayed more pronounced downward pressure as the week progressed. The TC2 37,000 DRA/US- Atlantic coast trip fell to WS132.5, lifting the Baltic description round-trip TCE to roughly US$13,895 per day. The TC19 voyage for 37,000 MEG/West Africa also trended down, sliding from WS174.69 to WS153.13. US Gulf MR routes likewise moved lower, with the TC14 38,000 US-Gulf/UK-Continent dropping from WS120.71 to WS98.57. The TC18 38,000 US Gulf/Brazil rate declined even more, finishing at WS156.43, and Caribbean runs on TC21, 38,000 US-Gulf/Caribbean, fell to roughly US$539,286. The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE moved lower, reflecting the softer broader market environment.

VLCC

The VLCC market continued on a downward trajectory, consistent with the broader trend of softening across larger crude carriers. The 270,000-mt Middle East Gulf to China route (TD3C) saw rates slip to WS54.10, with an implied round-trip TCE around US$36,533 per day, representing a roughly US$1,100/day decline from the prior week. The Atlantic route’s 260,000-mt West Africa/China (TD15) experienced a softer tone as well, edging down to WS58.19, and a round voyage TCE near US$41,981 per day—about US$700/day higher than a week earlier, illustrating the regional mix of gains and losses that characterized the VLCC landscape.

Meanwhile the 270,000-mt US Gulf/China (TD22) route saw a more pronounced decline, with rates decreasing by roughly US$352,500 since the previous Friday. The route’s current assessment stood at US$8,260,000, signifying a round-trip TCE near US$46,629 per day, or about US$1,000/day lower than a week ago. These divergences underscore how the VLCC market was exposed to a combination of macro-policy uncertainty, shifts in crude flows, and the tug-of-war between long-haul demand signals and the supply of available tonnage in major basins.

Suezmax

Suezmax trading reflected a selective but constructive stance in certain segments, aided by renewed demand in specific corridors. The 130,000-mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) posted an uptick of nine points to WS104.72, confirming a daily round-trip TCE of approximately US$48,650. The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent) advanced by seven points to WS103.61, equating to a daily TCE of around US$47,818. The improvement on these routes indicates that CPC-related volumes—despite earlier regional frictions—have stabilized to some degree, supporting sentiment in the long-haul crude trades through the Suez and into the European refining markets.

On the CPC front, the TD6 135,000-mt CPC/Med route remained relatively steady around the WS130 level, reflecting a comfortable position within a historically tight corridor. The Middle East market’s TD23 route 140,000-mt ME Gulf to the Mediterranean (via Suez) inched higher to just above WS91, marking a modest improvement in Trans-Med demand and highlighting the continued importance of the Suez Canal route for crude allocation into European refining hubs. This week’s Suezmax results show a market that is not uniformly bullish but contains pockets of strength where demand supports limited long-haul fixtures against a backdrop of overall market softness in other segments.

Aframax

Aframax markets displayed mixed activity with regional nuances shaping the week’s outcomes. In the North Sea and broader European markets, rate levels tended to hold within established ranges, supported by modest demand in certain port-to-port trades, while other routes remained under pressure amid supply growth in the area. Across the Atlantic, the 80,000-mt crosses into the Mediterranean firmed slightly in some fixtures, with demand for cross-Mediterranean movements showing resilience relative to neighboring corridors. The North Sea Cross-UK Continent route, for example, maintained a fairly stable range, reflecting a steady but cautious trading environment as owners balanced back-to-back requirements with risk management considerations.

In the Mediterranean, the 80,000-mt Cross-Mediterranean route showed notable improvements, with rates moving higher to reflect firmer sentiment. Meanwhile, the trans-Atlantic 70,000-mt routes to the US Gulf and to the UK Continent remained above pre-week levels, suggesting persistent interest in long-haul, high-value trades even as overall risk appetite remained constrained by macro uncertainties. The broader Aframax picture across the Atlantic and the Americas suggested a market that was steady but not robust, with fixtures and rate movements indicating a cautious, selective approach by both owners and charterers.

LNG

The LNG market faced a modest downward adjustment this week, with rates softening across most routes as forward sentiment remained cautious. The Atlantic basin displayed a mixed picture while the Pacific region registered modest declines. Long-term charter rates also shifted lower, reflecting the broader caution now permeating the LNG sector. On the BLNG1 route (Gladstone–Tokyo) for 174,000 cbm ships, rates fell by US$567 to US$24,700 per day, while the 160,000 cbm segment saw a sharper drop of US$1,500, settling at US$14,500 per day. In the Atlantic, the BLNG2 route (Sabine–UK Continent) softened slightly to US$22,600 for 174,000 cbm ships, with the 160,000 cbm class easing by US$500 to US$12,100 per day. The BLNG3 route (Sabine–Tokyo) was an outlier in strength, with 174,000 cbm carriers rising US$1,665 to US$29,500, and 160,000 cbm ships finishing up US$498 higher at US$15,300.

The period market also trimmed forward expectations, with six-month time charter rates for a 174,000 cbm vessel slipping US$350 to US$27,900 per day, while one-year rates declined by the same amount to US$32,575 per day. The three-year rate demonstrated relative steadiness but still edged down by US$50 to end the week at US$53,300 per day. These trajectories reflect a LNG segment that is sensitive to macro sentiment and forward-buy expectations, as market participants recalibrate their appetite for longer-term commitments amid policy volatility and shifting demand projections across key LNG import regions.

LPG

The LPG market endured a pronounced downturn this week, marked by a broad pullback in rates across major routes in response to newly implemented U.S. tariffs. The policy measures from the U.S. administration triggered a rapid reevaluation of forward demand and flow patterns in LPG trades, contributing to a sharp erosion of confidence in near-term activity. The BLPG1 Ras Tanura–Chiba route experienced a steep drop of US$23.17, settling at US$33.50, with corresponding TCE earnings declining US$22,778 to US$17,474, marking one of the most pronounced single-week declines in recent memory and underscoring the vulnerability of Middle East–East Asia flows to policy shocks.

In the Atlantic, the BLPG2 Houston–Flushing route recorded a similar volatility pattern, dipping US$15.25 to US$41.25, with TCE earnings down US$19,625 to US$36,607. The BLPG3 Houston–Chiba route faced the steepest decline of all LPG lanes, with rates shedding US$28.08 to US$75.17. TCE earnings followed suit, dropping US$19,020 to US$18,727, emphasizing how policy disruption is weighing heavily on U.S. long-haul trade to the east. The broader LPG space saw a notable risk-off stance as traders reduced exposure to forward positions and postponed commitments in the wake of tariff announcements and uncertainty surrounding demand outlooks.

Conclusion

The Baltic Exchange’s weekly round-up for April 11, 2025, depicts a freight market navigating a complex mix of tariff tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, regional demand shifts, and evolving supply dynamics. Across Capesize, Panamax, Ultramax/Supramax, Handysize, Clean tankers, VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, LNG, and LPG sectors, rate movements were uneven, with pockets of activity coexisting with broader softness driven by the policy environment and global demand patterns. Key takeaways include: Capesize indices reflecting midweek pressure amid longer Pacific tonnage lists and fluctuating South America to Africa trade; Panamax softness in the Atlantic with a fragile NoPac inquiry scene; Ultramax/Supramax demonstrating selective demand pockets despite tariff-driven caution; Handysize facing broad downward pressure across Atlantic and Pacific routes; Clean tankers showing a general easing in LR2 and MR segments alongside stable UK-Continent LR1 rates; VLCC and Suezmax displaying divergent routes with some gains on Nigerian/UK Continent flows against wider weakness; Aframax steadiness in select corridors; LNG and LPG markets confirming sensitivity to forward expectations and tariff policy.

The overarching theme remains a market balancing act between structural tonnage supply and fluctuating demand, with tariff policy acting as a critical, sometimes destabilizing, variable. Market participants will likely monitor commodity flows, refinery demand, and policy signals closely in the coming weeks. The Baltic Exchange will continue to provide market intelligence to help traders and shipowners navigate this evolving landscape, highlighting where demand may re-emerge and where risk factors could intensify.

Conclusion

In a week defined by macro headwinds and policy-induced caution, freight markets across vessel classes demonstrated resilience in pockets and fragility in others. The Capesize sector reflected the broader risk appetite, with midweek declines tempered by late-week recoveries, driven by miner activity and regional demand signals. Panamax and Ultramax/Supramax faced the pressure of global uncertainty, while Handysize and Clean trades broadly mirrored the weaker sentiment but showed potential for selective improvement in specific corridors. VLCC and Suezmax movements remained mixed, with some routes benefiting from tighter demand and others vulnerable to policy shifts, and the LNG/LPG markets underscored the sensitivity of forward-looking demand to tariff developments. Overall, the week reinforced the need for vigilant risk management, strategic ballast planning, and a nuanced understanding of regional demand drivers as the market edges toward a more informed equilibrium in the near term.