Retailers May See Less Holiday Hiring Due to Weaker Demand This Year

As the holiday season approaches, job seekers in Canada are increasingly searching for seasonal work to supplement their income or gain experience. However, a recent report from Indeed suggests that there may not be as many jobs available this year as in previous years.

A Challenging Environment for Job Seekers

According to data released by Indeed, the number of seasonal postings on the job site was down 15% compared to last year, and substantially lower than at their height in 2022. This year’s tally also amounts to 16% fewer job posts than there were at the same point in 2019.

"Soft employer demand for holiday workers, coupled with strong search interest, highlights the ongoing challenging environment facing Canadian job seekers, similar to trends during the recent summer job market," said Indeed economist Brendon Bernard.

Weaker Retail Demand Contributes to Fewer Holiday Jobs

One of the main factors contributing to the weakness in seasonal hiring is the sluggish demand for workers in the retail sector. More than three-quarters of Canadian holiday postings in October were for positions in retail, sales or customer service, and flat retail sales could mean lagging demand for workers in these sectors.

The report also noted that postings in these occupations are generally further below their pre-pandemic levels than the economy-wide average. This suggests that employers may be less likely to hire seasonal workers this year.

Growth of E-Commerce Also A Factor

Another factor that has likely contributed to this weakness is the growth of e-commerce. To date, about 6% of Canadian retail sales in 2024 have been through online platforms, which is still well above the 4% share reached before sales spiked during the pandemic.

As more people move towards online holiday shopping, there may be less appetite for seasonal hiring. However, despite the reduced supply of holiday jobs, more Canadians are searching for them.

Job Seekers Turning to Seasonal Roles as Hiring Slows Down

The overall slowdown in hiring has led job seekers to increasingly look for seasonal roles in the interim. This suggests that employers who are still in the market for holiday workers will have an easier time filling short-term positions to end the year.

According to Indeed, the share of searches containing seasonal or holiday-related terms rose for a second straight year to 0.27% in early November, up from 0.20% in 2022.

A Tough Holiday Season Ahead

Bernard noted that it appears the difficult conditions for Canadian job seekers will continue. He added that November and December may offer a repeat of the tough summer job market, in which the unemployment rate among students planning to return to school in the fall was the highest since 2012 (apart from 2020).

"The outlook remains challenging for those looking for seasonal work," Bernard said. "These dynamics have generally been defining features of the Canadian labour market throughout 2024."

Conclusion

While job seekers may be eager to find seasonal work, employers may be less likely to hire due to weaker retail demand and the growth of e-commerce. However, with more Canadians searching for seasonal roles, those who are still in the market for holiday workers may have an easier time filling short-term positions to end the year.

As the holiday season approaches, it remains to be seen how the job market will unfold. One thing is certain: the outlook remains challenging for those looking for seasonal work.